Happy Tuesday, folks. After another meager Monday slate, seeing every team on the docket tonight is a welcomed site for bettors. I have narrowed down my favorite player props, but before I get into those, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you are looking to wager on any game sides or totals.
With more than two-thirds of the season behind us, we have a pretty good idea of what to reasonably expect from most starting pitchers in average matchups. So when I’m looking for value in these props, I love targeting specific matchups. Tonight, I’m looking to exploit both ends of the spectrum, with one pitcher whom I expect to roll, and one who I expect to face some challenges.
German Marquez (COL) over 6.5 strikeouts (+110)
Line available at publishing.
I’m all in on Marquez today, having played the over on his outs prop as well. The Rockies ace has rediscovered his strikeout pedigree this season, racking up 151 punchouts in 147 innings pitched. He’s hit this over in 6 of his last 10 starts. He’s also hit this in 4 of his last 5 outings away from Coors Field.
Marquez’s go-to put-away pitches are his breaking balls. He looks to finish batters with either his slider or curveball, compiling 130 strikeouts between the two. And tonight’s matchup, the Cubs, have been exceptionally poor versus both of late. The North-Siders rank in the bottom seven teams of weighted runs created off both breaking ball types in the last 30 days.
And let’s face it, the Cubs have been a mess since the trade deadline. Over the last 30 days, the Cubs have the highest strikeout rate (28.3 percent — more than 3 percent more than any other team over that span), and the sixth-lowest team OPS (.698). Five of the last 7 starting pitchers have reached the 7 strikeout plateau against them, each of which with worse season numbers than Marquez.
With Marquez primed for a big night, I’m thrilled to grab this line at plus odds. I have the big right-hander projected close to 8 strikeouts tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs
Dylan Cease (CWS) under 17.5 pitching outs (-135)
Line available at publishing.
Cease is the definition of a power pitcher. With his fastball averaging close to 97 mph, the three-year veteran ranks 12th in strikeout rate and 26th in walk rate amongst 142 players with 70 innings pitched this season. What this often translates to is a lack of pitch efficiency, and we see that with Cease. Amongst qualified starting pitchers, Cease ranks 6th of 112 in most pitches per plate appearance. For him to get through at least six innings, he needs to be sharp.
And on the road this season, Cease has struggled. With a 5.86 ERA, the White Sox hurler has failed to complete 6 innings in 8 of his 10 starts. Facing one of the premier lineups in baseball tonight, the Blue Jays, won’t make things easier for him. The Jays have the second-highest team OPS against righties this season (.784), and the seventh-highest overall in the last 30 days (.769). For a pitcher who struggles on the road as is, it’s a very tough matchup.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays