Saturday is a day for gambling; that’s just a fact. We are entering the “jackpot” stage of the gambling year, where there are sports to bet as far as the eye can see so we have options. One thing we can’t forget about is the MLB player prop market. These are the guys that got us through the tough June and July months (pretend like it was tough for a second). Even though the books have the edge in this market right now, I enjoy the challenge. I welcome it even. Here is one guy that I think they made a mistake on today.
Keep in mind, you can’t win if you don’t bet.
On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today. It’s just a smart thing to do. Also, bets can be added to the card, so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action?
Zach Davies over 4.5 strikeouts (+115) AND over 0.5 home runs allowed (-105)
Strikeout line available at BetMGM and home runs allowed line at DraftKings at time of publishing.
This is what I like to call a 2 for 1. The old twofer on a MLB player prop. I went to BetMGM for the strikeout line at +115 since DraftKings only had +105. Both are playable but obviously +115 is better. As for the home runs allowed move, DraftKings is the only show in town for that one.
Zach Davies is not a strikeout guy. He has a 16.3 percent K-rate this season to prove it. But looking at his last 4 starts, anyone with a pair of eyeballs and a functioning brain can see that he’s whiffing people. Davies has fanned at least 5 guys in 3 of the 4 starts, including a pair of 8-strikeout performances. The other side of this is that he’s given up 6 dingers in those 4 starts. He’s a pretty fun guy right now.
Davies gets the Miami Marlins today who have struck out more than every team except 1 (Cubs) in the last week. The thing is, only 7 teams have hit more home runs in that span. We have a Steve Balboni situation going here. The best way to take advantage is to bet his strikeouts over and his home runs allowed prop–like a boss.
This is my favorite way to attack the MLB player prop market on Saturday.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins