Unit Sizing

A unit is the standard bet size in your staking plan, expressed as a fixed percentage of bankroll. Talking in units rather than currency makes records comparable across time and between bettors, and it enforces consistency.

What A Unit Is

One unit is 1 to 2% of bankroll. On a 5,000 bankroll at 1%, one unit is 50.

Every play is then described in units. "Two units on the under" means 2% of bankroll. "Three units" means 3%. The currency amount changes as the bankroll grows or shrinks; the unit description does not.

This matters for evaluating anyone's record, including your own. A record of "+18 units" is meaningful. A record of "+2,400" is not, because it says nothing about how much was risked to get there. Any service reporting profit in currency rather than units is withholding the information you need. See how to read a betting record.

Most Bets Should Be One Unit

The default and the overwhelming majority. A play that clears your threshold gets one unit; a play that does not gets nothing.

The reason is that your ability to rank the strength of your own edges is much weaker than it feels. Distinguishing a 3% edge from a 6% edge requires precision that most processes do not have, and betting three units on the second means amplifying an estimate you cannot verify.

Anything above three units on a single game is difficult to justify from measurement rather than feeling, whatever the confidence.

Why Confidence Is A Bad Input

The correlation between how sure a bettor feels and how often they are right is weak, and often negative.

Strong feelings usually come from vivid, memorable, heavily reported information — a dominant recent performance, a compelling narrative, a marquee matchup. That is precisely the information already in the price, because everybody else saw it too.

Genuine edges more often feel unremarkable: a small number discrepancy, a schedule spot, a role change nobody has written about. They do not produce conviction, and that is a feature.

Sizing Across Different Bet Types

Straight sides and totals. The standard, and the yardstick everything else is measured against.

Player props. Often sized at half to three-quarters of a unit, because limits are lower and vig is higher.

Parlays and long shots. A quarter unit at most, treated as entertainment. See parlays explained.

Futures. A small predetermined allocation, not sized from the same unit scheme, since they are open for months. See futures betting.

The important thing is that the rules are written down before the season rather than decided in the moment, because in-the-moment sizing decisions are where discipline erodes.

Frequently Asked Questions