Closing Line Value Calculator

Closing line value compares the price you got to the price the market settled on. It is the fastest honest feedback in betting, because it arrives within hours instead of within a thousand bets.

Enter what you took and what it closed at. The calculator de-vigs the close, then reports the edge in probability points, in cents, and in expected dollars.

What The Calculator Does

Three steps, in order.

First it de-vigs the close. Closing prices of -125 and +105 imply 55.56% and 48.78%, totalling 104.34%. Dividing through gives a fair closing probability of 53.25% on your side. Skipping this step is the most common error in CLV tracking, and it makes every bet look worse than it was, because the raw closing price includes the book's margin.

Second it converts the price you took. -105 implies 51.22%.

Third it subtracts. 53.25% − 51.22% = +2.03 percentage points of closing line value. Applied to a $100 stake at the price you took, that is +$3.96 of expected value, or +3.96% on turnover.

Three Ways To Express The Same Edge

CLV gets quoted in different units, and knowing which is which prevents comparing incompatible numbers.

Probability points is the rigorous unit. It is comparable across every price level: two points of edge on a -110 spread and two points on a +400 underdog mean the same thing about your process, even though the dollar consequences differ.

Cents is the trader's shorthand. -105 versus a -125 close is "20 cents of value". It is quick and it is fine for comparing bets at similar prices, but it is misleading across the board: 20 cents is worth far more at -110 than at +900, because the same 20 cents covers a much smaller slice of probability out there.

Expected value in dollars is what it is worth. It folds in the stake, so it answers "what did this bet earn me in expectation" rather than "how good was the decision".

Why CLV Is The Best Short-Run Signal

Win rate is a terrible short-run measure. Separating a 55% bettor from a 52% one takes something like a thousand bets, so a season of results tells you very little.

CLV converges much faster because it discards the outcome and keeps the decision. Closing lines are the sharpest prices any market produces — that is when the most money and the most information have arrived — so consistently getting a better number than the close is evidence that your process is ahead of the market. Consistently getting a worse one is evidence that it is behind, no matter what the win-loss record looks like.

Two or three hundred bets of CLV data is a usable read. That is a manageable sample, and it is why serious bettors track it in a spreadsheet next to the result of every bet. The bet tracking guide covers what the columns should be, and sample size covers why the win-rate column takes so long to say anything.

Where CLV Misleads

It is the best cheap signal, not a proof, and it fails in specific situations worth knowing.

Illiquid markets. The close is only sharp if the market is. Obscure props, small-college games and early futures can close on a number nobody serious has pushed against, so beating that close proves little.

Your own footprint. If your bet moved the line, you are partly measuring yourself. That is a good problem, but it inflates the reading.

Stale-line pickoffs. Beating a close because you took a number the book had not updated after an injury is real money and no evidence of handicapping skill. It is a speed edge, and it usually ends in limits.

Sportsbook choice. Comparing your bet against your own book's close rather than a sharp book's close flatters a soft book and punishes a sharp one. Pick one reference market and stay with it.

Used with those caveats, it stays the most useful number a bettor can record. Our own published record includes the price and the book on every play so this calculation is possible against it — see the record, or the closing line value guide for the theory.

Frequently Asked Questions