Point Spreads Explained

The point spread is a handicap that turns an uneven matchup into something close to a coin flip. It is the most heavily bet market in American sports and the one where most bettors form their first opinions.

The Mechanics

The favourite is shown with a negative number and the underdog with a positive one. A team at -6.5 must win by seven or more for a bet on it to win. The opponent at +6.5 wins the bet by losing by six or fewer, or by winning outright.

Both sides are usually priced at -110, meaning you risk 110 to win 100 regardless of which side you take. The handicap does the work of making the sides roughly equal; the price is the book's commission.

A spread of exactly 0 is called a pick or pickem, meaning the teams are considered even and you are simply betting on who wins.

Half-Points, Pushes And Why Books Use Them

When a spread lands on a whole number and the game finishes on exactly that margin, the bet is a push: stakes are returned and nobody wins. A bet on -7 in a game won by exactly seven is a push.

Half-points eliminate this. A spread of -6.5 or -7.5 cannot push, which is why books favour them — a push means the book collects no commission on that bet.

Whether a half-point matters to you depends enormously on the sport. In football, where margins cluster on 3 and 7, moving across those numbers changes win probability substantially. In basketball, where margins are spread smoothly, half-points are worth roughly the same wherever they sit. See key numbers.

When The Spread Moves And When The Price Does

Books adjust in two ways: moving the handicap, or moving the price attached to it.

Away from key numbers, they usually move the spread. From -6.5 to -7 to -7.5 as money comes in on the favourite.

On key numbers, they prefer to move the price. A football game sitting at -3 will often go from -110 to -120 to -130 before the book moves to -3.5, because moving off 3 is a large jump in true probability and the book would rather charge more than shift the handicap.

This is why a line described as "moving" needs specifics. A move from -3 (-110) to -3 (-135) is substantial even though the spread is unchanged, and a bettor watching only the handicap misses it. See line movement.

How Spreads Differ Across Sports

Baseball and hockey use fixed spreads with moving prices, which makes them conversion problems rather than handicap problems. See run lines and puck lines.

The Standard That Applies To Every Spread Bet

52.4% at -110. Every spread bet, in every sport, needs that win rate to break even, and the honest professional target is the mid-fifties.

Which means the two levers that matter are getting better numbers than the market's closing price, and betting only when your projection genuinely disagrees. Neither is glamorous, and together they are essentially the whole job. See closing line value.

Frequently Asked Questions