Look Ahead Lines

Look ahead lines are posted well before a game — typically for the following week, sometimes for the whole season. They are the loosest numbers a sportsbook publishes, and betting them is one of the few systematic ways to generate closing line value without an analytical model.

Why They Are Soft

A look ahead number is a projection made before the inputs exist.

Nobody knows who will be injured, what the weather will be, whether a team will be resting starters, or what will have happened in the intervening games. So books post from power ratings with wide margins and low limits, expecting to be corrected.

They also receive very little money, which means very little correction. A number nobody bets is a number nobody has forced towards accuracy, and it can sit two or three points away from where the market will eventually settle.

Football is where this matters most. NFL look ahead lines for the following week are posted immediately after the current week's games, and college football look ahead numbers are looser still. See NFL picks.

What To Look For

Rest and travel situations the model has flattened. A team on a short week travelling across time zones after an emotional game is a spot power ratings handle crudely. See rest and travel spots.

Injury returns you can anticipate. A key player on a timeline that suggests availability next week, while the look ahead number assumes absence, or the reverse.

Teams whose ratings are lagging. Power ratings update slowly. A team that has genuinely improved is underrated in look ahead numbers for weeks. See power ratings.

Motivation and scheduling context. A team facing a marquee opponent the following week, or one whose playoff position is already settled.

The Risks You Accept

Injury. The main one. Betting a team a week early means accepting whatever happens to its roster in the meantime, with no way to unwind the position.

Weather. Unknowable that far out, and decisive on football totals. See weather betting.

Lineup and rest decisions. Especially late in a season, when a team may rest starters for reasons unrelated to the matchup.

Low limits. You cannot bet size, so the edge cannot be scaled.

Capital tied up. Money committed a week early is money not available for better spots in the interim.

These risks are the reason the numbers are soft. You are being paid to accept uncertainty, and the bet is only good if the payment exceeds the uncertainty's cost.

How To Bet Them Sensibly

Size down. Half a unit is a reasonable default, given the added uncertainty. See unit sizing.

Prefer sides to totals. Totals carry more weather and pace risk over a week's horizon.

Avoid teams with pending injury news. Any position whose value depends on a ruling that has not happened is a coin flip dressed as an edge.

Record the number. Look ahead bets are the purest test of whether your read anticipates the market, so the closing comparison is especially informative. See closing line value.

Do not bet many. The point of a look ahead line is that it is occasionally two points wrong, not that it is always available. Most weeks produce nothing.

Frequently Asked Questions